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Jake Welch Associates: Forecast Techniques

Consulting income at Jake Welch Associates for the period February - July is below. Forecast August's income using the following techniques. a) Two month moving average. b) Two month weighted moving average, where the most recent month is weighted 60% and the second most recent month is weighted 40%. c) Exponential smoothi

Forecast Major Sources of Revenues

A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as retail trade. Four years of quarterly data (in millions) for one particular ar

Fundamentals of Statistics - help needed to complete

In each of the assignments in this course, you will be dealing with the following scenario: American Intellectual Union (AIU) has assembled a team of researchers in the United States and around the world to study job satisfaction. Congratulations, you have been selected to participate in this massive global undertaking. The stu

The Median and Mean Prize Amount on TV Show, Deal or No Deal

On the TV show Deal or No Deal, a contestant chooses from among 26 suitcases, each containing a dollar amount. These dollar amounts are typically: .01 1 5 10 25 50 75 100 200 300 400 500 750 1,000 5,000 10,000 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 (a) (2) Using only the table, de

Calculating the capital gain and dividend yields

If a broker offers you shares of Bay Area Healthcare, which just paid a dividend of $2 per share. The dividend is expected to grow at a constant rate of 5 percent per year. The stock's required rate of return is 12 percent. a. What is the expected dollar dividend over the next three years? b. What is the current value of

Your family is offering you your choice of two alternatives.

Your family is offering you your choice of two alternatives. The first alternative is to give you a money gift of $19,000. The second alternative is to make an investment in your name. This will quickly have the following two possible outcomes: Outcome Probability Receive $10,000 0.3 Receive $30,000

Expected Profit Contribution

A pharmaceutical company has determined that if a new cholesterol-reducing drug is manufactured (introduced to the market) the following probability distribution will describe this drug's contribution to the company profits during the next six months. Profit Contribution Probability of Profit contribution ($30,000)

word problem

One thousand raffle tickets are sold for $4.00 each. One grand prize of $800 and two consolation prizes of $100 each will be awarded. Jeremy purchases one ticket. Find his expected value. Show your work

Expected Monetary Value..

A production manager is trying to decide whether to hire an experienced worker, a new inexperienced worker or stick with the existing team. With benefits, the experienced worker would cost $50,000 per year and the new worker $25,000. The current team can produce 10,000 units of product a year. She estimates the experienced

Expected value of frequency

Please help me solve this problem (and show all the work please so that I know how to complete similar problems) thank you. 1) You are a risk manager of ABC company and you are reevaulating your insurance contract. Your insurer has informed you that the expected value of frequency per month for ABC is 2.43. You believe this

word prob

Essay; show all work. The property restoration company PuroServ is considering switching to new dehumidifiers. Their market research, considering the cost of the new machines and their efficiency, tells them that the switch would give them an 67% chance of making a $20,000 profit, a 3% chance of breaking even, and a 30% chance o

expected prize value

One thousand raffle tickets are sold for $5.00 each. One grand prize of $800 and two consolation prizes of $100 each will be awarded. Jeremy purchases one ticket. Find his expected value. Show your work for full credit.

Expected Value of Guessing on a Multiple Choice Test

In a multi-choice test, each question has four options. Students wil get 10 points for each correct answer; lose four points for each incorrect answer; and receive no points for unanswered questions. A student does not know the correct answer for one question. Is it to her advantage or disadvantage to guess an answer? Show c

Calculate due date briefly.

A project is being analyzed using PERT. The expected completion time of the project is 70 weeks with a standard deviation of 5 weeks. Assume the project completion time is normally distributed. If the due date of the project is to be set to there is only a 20% chance of being late (and an 80% chance of finishing on time), what s

Probability Model; Decision Maker is Risk Neutral; Test Results

See attached file. A decision maker is faced with the problem shown. Assume that the decision maker is risk neutral. a) A test is available that will provide information about the possible outcomes associated with A. Add a branch called 'do the test' to the decisions below. Show how the test can be used to guide the

Accounting - Monthly Budget and Supporting Schedules

The controller of Dash Shoes Inc. instructs you to prepare a monthly cash budget for the next three months. You are presented with the following budget information: Sales for June-$141,000, July-$169,000, and August-$227,000 Manufacturing costs for June-59,000, July-73,000, and August -82,000 Selling and administrative ex

Statistics Demographics Key Survey's

Gender Age Department Position Tenure Job Satisfaction Intrinsic Extrinsic Benefits 1 1 3 2 3 5.2 5.5 6.8 1.4 1 1 1 1 3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 KEY TO SURVEY 1 1 1 1 1 5.8 5.2 4.6 6.2 1 1 2 1 1 5.5 5.3 5.7 2.3 Demographics 1 1 2 1 1 3.2 4.7 5.6 4.5 2 2 2 1 1 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.4 Gender 2 2 1 1 1 5.1 5.2 4.6 6.2 1 Ma

Forecasting and Quality Control

1. A company is producing cylindrical blocks for a children's toy. The average diameter of a block is 3.5 inches. Sixteen blocks are inspected and the diameters are measured. The standard deviation is estimated to be 0.02 inches. What are the 99.7% upper and lower control limits for the x-bar chart? 2. Demand for a particul

Precision Tree Help

Suppose that one of your colleagues has $2000 available to invest. Assume that all of this money must be placed in one of three investments: a particular money market fund, a stock, or gold. Each dollar your colleague invests in the money market fund earns a virtually guaranteed 6% annual return. Each dollar he invests in the s

Predict the expected value of perfect information.

4. Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S. - producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available du


Please see attached files for data. 1. Develop a four month moving average forecast for Wallace garden supply and compute the MAD. 2. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50 pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a three year moving average to forecast sales. Then

Probabilities in Excel

Person dealt 13 cards from an ordinary deck of 52 cards several times. On average, how many hearts can he expect? What is the variance of the number of hearts? Use the rules for discrete probability distributions.

McKenzie Corporation: Capital Budgeting

Sam McKenzie is the founder and CEO of McKenzie Restaurants, Inc., a regional company. Sam is considering opening several new restaurants. Sally Thornton, the company's CFO, has been put in charge of the capital budgeting analysis. She has examined the potential for the company's expansion and determined that the success of the

Forecast Analysis

1. The Excel file Closing Stock Prices provides data for four stocks over a six-month period. a. Develop spreadsheet models for forecasting each of the stock prices using single moving average and single exponential smoothing. b. Using MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of moving average periods and best smo

Decision Analysis: EMV & EVPI

See the attached file. An investor is to purchase one of three types of real estate. The investor must decide among an apartment building, an office building, and a warehouse. The future states of nature that will determine how much profit the investor will make are good economic conditions and poor economic conditions. Th

Tim-Series Data - Weighted Moving Average

I need to know why weighting is useful in calculating moving average and how it is calculated. The "how" I already have in technical terms, but I need it explained to me in laymen's terms. Also, I need help with the following: The yield on a 30-year treasury note at the end of each year since 1990 is recorded below. Comput

Determining Fair Price: Example Question

1. Let's play a game. An urn contains five red, four green and one gold ball other than color, the balls are identical. You are blindfolded and allowed to pick a ball from the urn. Red pays $5, green pays $10 and gold pays $50. A. Determine the fair price to play this game B. Let x be the payoff variable for this game. Find