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A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state comptroller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as retail trade. Four years of quarterly data (in millions) for one particular area of southeast Texas are below. Determine the best forecasting technique for this data and use it to forecast sales for each quarter of year 5.

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Q 1 214 225 234 250
Q 2 247 254 265 283
Q 3 243 255 255 289
Q 4 292 302 327 367

I need help with setting up the data for finding the lowest MSE. What type of forecasting techniques do I use for comparison. I'm assuming the three year MA, the Weighted Moving average and the exponential smoothing but it doesn't appear to be enough data for these techniques. Just need some direction on where to begin. This is what I have so far:

Year 5
214
247
243
292
225

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Solution Summary

This solution is comprised of detailed analysis and step-by-step calculations of various Forecast Techniques like Seasonally Adjusted Foecast in EXCEL. The solution provides students with a clear perspective of the given problem and the related aspects of forecast analysis.

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