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Exponentially Smoothed Forecast

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The manager of Petroco service station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the pas 10 months:

Months Gasoline Demanded(gal)

October 800
November 725
December 630
January 500
february 645
March 690
April 730
May 810
June 1200
July 980

A. Compute an exponentially smooth forecast, using alpha value of .30.
B. Compute an adjusted exponentially smooth forecast (with alpha=.30 and beta = .20)
C. Compare the two forecasts by using MAPD and indicate which seems to be more accurate.

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Solution Summary

This solution is comprised of detailed step-by-step calculations and explanation of various Forecast Techniques like Exponentially Smoothed Forecast, Adjusted Exponentially Smoothed Forecast etc. and various Forecast Accuracy Measures like Forecast Error, Absolute Error, MAPD etc. in EXCEL. Comparison of these Forecast Techniques based on these Forecast Accuracy measures has also been shown.

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The Oceanside hotel is adjacent to city coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the nice years since the coliseum opened:
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