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    Exponentially Smoothed Forecast

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    The manager of Petroco service station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the pas 10 months:

    Months Gasoline Demanded(gal)

    October 800
    November 725
    December 630
    January 500
    february 645
    March 690
    April 730
    May 810
    June 1200
    July 980

    A. Compute an exponentially smooth forecast, using alpha value of .30.
    B. Compute an adjusted exponentially smooth forecast (with alpha=.30 and beta = .20)
    C. Compare the two forecasts by using MAPD and indicate which seems to be more accurate.

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    Solution Summary

    This solution is comprised of detailed step-by-step calculations and explanation of various Forecast Techniques like Exponentially Smoothed Forecast, Adjusted Exponentially Smoothed Forecast etc. and various Forecast Accuracy Measures like Forecast Error, Absolute Error, MAPD etc. in EXCEL. Comparison of these Forecast Techniques based on these Forecast Accuracy measures has also been shown.

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