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Distribution of Emergency Calls to Detroit

Emergency calls to Detroit, Michigan 911 system, for the past 24 weeks are as follows

week - calls week - calls week - calls
1 50 9 35 17 55
2 35 10 20 18 40
3 25 11 15 19 35
4 40 12 40 20 60
5 45 13 55 21 75
6 35 14 35 22 50
7 20 15 25 23 40
8 30 16 55 24 65

(a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week and use σ = 0.1. What is the forecast for the 25th week?
(b) Reforecast each period using σ = 0.6
(c) Actual calls during the 25th week were 85. Which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast?

Solution Summary

This solution calculates the exponentially smoothed forecast and reforecasts each week in an Excel sheet. All workings are shown in the Excel file with determinations of mean squared error, mean absolute percent error and percent positive errors.

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