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Exponentially Smoothed Forecast, MAD, MAPD in EXCEL

The manager fo the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past ten months:

Month Gasoline Demanded (gal)
Oct 800
Nov 775
Dec 630
Jan 500
Feb 645
March 690
April 730
May 810
June 1,200
July 980

Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast using an symbol a which stand for a weighting factor referred to as the smoothing constant of a value of .30

Compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with a which stand for a weighting factor referred to as the smoothing constant =.30 and B.20

Compute the two forecast by using MAPD and indicate which seems to be more accurate

Solution Summary

Two Exponential Smoothed Forecasts have been performed in Excel using two different smoothing constants of 0.02 and 0.03. Forecast Error, MAD and MAPD have been calculated and comparison between the two forecasts using these MAD and MAPD values has been shown.

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