The manager fo the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past ten months:
Month Gasoline Demanded (gal)
Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast using an symbol a which stand for a weighting factor referred to as the smoothing constant of a value of .30
Compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast with a which stand for a weighting factor referred to as the smoothing constant =.30 and B.20
Compute the two forecast by using MAPD and indicate which seems to be more accurate
Two Exponential Smoothed Forecasts have been performed in Excel using two different smoothing constants of 0.02 and 0.03. Forecast Error, MAD and MAPD have been calculated and comparison between the two forecasts using these MAD and MAPD values has been shown.