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1. Develop a four month moving average forecast for Wallace garden supply and compute the MAD.

2. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50 pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a three year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other two years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?

3. Sales of cool man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past five years. The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year 1's sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of α =0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.


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