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Forecast Analysis

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Consulting income at Jake Welch Associates for the period February - July is below. Forecast August's income using the following techniques.

a) Two month moving average.
b) Two month weighted moving average, where the most recent month is weighted 60% and the second most recent month is weighted 40%.
c) Exponential smoothing, using a 0.1 smoothing factor and Feb. forecast of $69,000.
d) Exponential smoothing, using a 0.4 smoothing factor and Feb. forecast of $69,000.
e) Which technique provides the best forecast and why.

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This solution is comprised of detailed analysis and step-by-step calculations of various Forecast Techniques like Exponentially Smoothed Forecast, Weighted Moving Average Forecast etc. in Excel. The solution provides students with a clear perspective of the given problems and the related aspects of forecast analysis.

Solution provided by:
Anwesha Ghosh, MSc
Education
  • MSc, Osmania University
  • MSc, Indian Institute of Technology - Roorkee (I.I.T.-ROORKEE)
  • BSc, Banaras Hindu University
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