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Forecast Analysis

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1. The Excel file Closing Stock Prices provides data for four stocks over a six-month period.
a. Develop spreadsheet models for forecasting each of the stock prices using single moving average and single exponential smoothing.
b. Using MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of moving average periods and best smoothing constant for exponential smoothing. (You might consider using data tables to facilitate your search.)

2. For the data in the Excel file Baseball Attendance do the following:
a. Develop spreadsheet models for forecasting attendance using single moving average and single exponential smoothing.
b. Using MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of moving average periods and best smoothing constant for exponential smoothing.

4. For the data in the Excel file Gasoline Prices do the following:
a. Develop spreadsheet models for forecasting prices using single moving average and single exponential smoothing.
b. Using MAD, MSE, and MAPE as guidance, find the best number of moving average periods and best smoothing constant for exponential smoothing.

5. Construct a line chart for the data in the Excel file Arizona Population.
a. Suggest the best-fitting functional form for forecasting these data.

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Solution Summary

This solution is comprised of detailed step-by-step calculation and analysis of various Forecast Techniques like Moving Average Forecast, Exponentially Smoothed Forecast etc. and various Forecast Accuracy Measures like Error, Absolute Error, MAD, MAPE etc. in EXCEL. Comparison of these Forecast Techniques based on these Forecast Accuracy measures has also been shown in details.

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Forecast Analysis

Problem 1
Do the Problem and answer all the questions.
Hint for question (c): Compare the errors on the basis of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?
a) Develop forecasts for period 5 through 10 using 4-month moving averages.

Problem 2
Do the problem and answer all the questions.
Hint for question: Compare the errors on the basis of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?
a.) Exponential smooting with smoothing constant ? = 0.1. Use the actual value of the first period as the starting forecast for the second period.

Problem 3
Do the problem and answer all the questions.
Hint for question: Compare the errors on the basis of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)?
Copy and paste the following data set in Excel to save the typing effort and possible mistakes in data entry.

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