Suppose that the national unemployment rate in six months is forecast as 7.4% with an uncertainty of 2.3% (percentage points) as given by the estimated standard deviation of the forecast. Please assume a normal distribution with this mean and standard deviation. ---Find the probability that the unemployment rate will be over
A consensus of experts has agreed on the following table of potential NPVs and their likelihoods for a capital budgeting project that involves considerable uncertainty and is therefore risky: PROBABIlITY NPV ($thousands) 0.15 (300) 0.35 (50) 0.45 500 0.05
In your opinion, the best outcome would be to have the communications contract awarded to your company but to have the construction contract awarded to a different company. This is not because you are fond of your competition, but instead because if you were to win both, the result would place some strain on your (relatively) s
Cooper Realty is a small real estate company located in Albany, New York, specializing primarily in residential listings. They recently became interested in determining the liklihood of one of their listings being sold within a certain number of days. An analysis of company sales of 800 homes in previous years produced
1. What value represents the 25th percentile? 2. A normal distribution has a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of 14. Determine the value above which 80% of the values will occur. 3. A normal population has a mean of 75 and a standard deviation of 5. You select a sample of 40. Compute the probability the sample mean is:
Dude Ranches Incorporated was founded on the idea that many families in the eastern and southern areas of the United States do not have a sufficient amount of vacation time to drive to the dude ranches in the Southwest and Rocky Mountain areas for their vacations. Various surveys indicated, however, that there was a considerable
Please help with the following problem. Include calculations. Suppose that the stock now sells at $80, and the price will go up by 5% or down by 5% at the end of first six month (t = ½). Then, the price will either go up by 10% or down by 10% at the end of year (t = 1). A call option on the stock has an exercise price of
1) A contractor is considering a project which he estimates will yield a $160,000 profit with a probability of 65% and a loss of $50,000 with a 35% probability due to poor weather and material issues. What is his expected (value) profit? 2) CSI has a 20 share meaning that while it is being broadcast, 20% of the TV sets are tu
People arrive a a particular sales counter at the rate of 6 in any 15 minute period and are served on a "first come first served" basis. Arrivals occur randomly throughout the hour and the arrival rate is the same during the entire business day. It takes 5 minutes to service a single customer. How likely is it that exactly 1 cus
What is an example of a research problem at your organization that would benefit from the use of either descriptive statistics or probability distribution statistics? Explain.
Allen Abbott has a wide-curving, uphill driveway leading to his garage. When ther is a heavy snow, Allen hires a local carpenter, who shovels snow on the side in teh winter, to shovel his driveway. The snow shoveler charges charges $30 to shovel the driveway. Following is a probability distribution of the number of heavy snows e
A Tamiami shearing machine is producing 10 percent defective pieces, which is abnormally high. The quality control engineer has been checking the output by almost continuous sampling since the abnormal condition began. What is the probability that in a sample of 10 pieces: a. Exactly 5 will be defective? b. 5 or more will b
7. Construct a binomial distribution chart and table showing all of the outcomes if a woman would like to know all possible outcomes of having 3 children. Also show this using a probability tree diagram. a. What are the odds the second child is a boy? b. What are the odds she has all 3 boys?
According to a recent survey 20% of people are late for work on any given day. You are a manager of a department of 18 people. Find the probability that: a. 3 will be late on a given day. b. 0 will be late on a given day. c. More than 1 person will be late on a given day d. 2 or fewer will be late on a given day
A lottery involves drawing five white balls out of a drum with 55 balls and then drawing one red ball out of a drum with 42 red balls. You can buy a $1 ticket and select five white numbers from (1-55 inclusive and one red number (from 1 - 42 inclusive). you win the lottery if you pick all five of the correct white balls and th
If 80% of all people between the ages of 30 and 50 drive a car, find these probabilities for a sample of 20 people in that age group: a. Exactly 18 drive a car. b. 16 or more drive a car. c. At most 15 drive a car.
Suppose you are playing Texas Hold'em poker and you are dealt the ace of hearts and the ten of hearts. What is the probability that you make a flush with exactly three more hearts on the board by the river?
How many different computer passwords are possible? a.If each password consists of 3 symbols and if the first one must be a number and the other 2 must be letters b.If each password consists of 3 symbols and if the first one must be a Letter and the other 2 must be Numbers c.Which one do you believe is more secure and w
4. At a swimwear store, the managers found that 16 women bought white bathing suits, 4 bought red suits, 3 bought blue suits, and 7 bought yellow suits. If a customer is selected at random, find the probability that she bought: a. A blue suit b. A yellow or a red suit c. A white or a yellow or a blue suit d. A
3. When a card is selected from a deck, find the probability of getting: a. A club b. A face card or a heart c. A six and a spade d. A king e. A red card
The table below represents the results of a survey of 500 Households in Q1 2005: Current Economic conditions: GOOD FAIR BAD Jobs Are HARD To Get 25 145 70 Jobs Are EASY To Get 100 145 15 a. If a Household is chosen at random, what is the probability that it feels economic conditions are GOOD? b. If a Ho
7. A manufacturing company has three factories: X, Y, and Z. The daily output of each is shown here. Factory X Factory Y Factory Z TVs 18 32 41 Stereos 56 40 13 If one item is selected at random, find these probabilities. a. It is a TV b. It was manufactured at Factory Y c. It was manufactured at factory X
The Bridgeport city manager and the chief of police agreed on the size of the police force necessary for normal daily operations. However, they need assistance in determining the number of additional police officers needed to cover daily absences due to injuries, sickness, vacations, and personal leave. Records over the past thr
2. Suppose 90% of kids who visit a doctor have a fever, and 20% of kids with a fever have sore throats. What's the probability that a kid who goes to the doctor has a fever and a sore throat? The probability is ______. 3. The percent distribution of live multiple-delivery births (three or more babies) in a particular year fo
The quality control process at a manufacturing plant requires that each lot of finished units be sampled for defective items. Twenty units from each lot are inspected. If five or more defective units are found, the lot is rejected. If a lot is known to contain 10% defective items, what is the probability that the lot will be rej
Individually remove all four aces from a deck of playing cards. There will now be 24 red cards in the deck, that will represent "male" files, and 24 black cards that will represent "female" files. Alternatively, you may use 48 index cards, marking half with "M" and half with "F". Shuffle the cards at least seven times and then
Although most people believe breakfast is the most important meal of the day, 25% of adults skip breakfast (U.S. News & World Report, November 10, 1997). Assume the population proportion is p = .25, and pbar is the sample proportion of adults who skip breakfast based on a sample of 200 adults. a) Show the sampling distributio
For a recent period of 100 years, there were 93 major earthquakes (at leat 6.0 on the Richter scale) in the world (based on data from the World Almanac and Book of facts). Assuming that the Poisson distribution is a suitable model, find the mean number of major earthquakes per year, then find the probability that the number of e
A study of college football games shows that the number of holding penalties assessed has a mean of 2.3 penalties per game and a standard deviation of 1.1 penalties per game. What is the probability that, for a sample of 40 college games to be played next week, the mean number of holding penalties will be 2.4 penalties per game
An oil explorer orders seismic tests to determine whether oil is likely to be found in a certain drilling area. The seismic tests have a known reliability: when oil does exist in the testing area, the test will indicate so 90% of the time; when oil does not exist in the test area, 5% of the time the test will erroneously indica