Nobody can predict the future, but proven tools help us illuminate the path ahead so we are able to make better decisions about opportunities and threats in an uncertain future. The most comprehensive of these tools is scenario planning, a storytelling technique that allows managers to explore different plausible model worlds, each based on alternative resolution of the most important pending technological, societal, or regulatory uncertainties facing them.
For this assignment, you will investigate scenario planning further and prepare a minimum of 600 words on scenario
planning in public policy analysis.
Paper should include the following information:
Discuss the evolution of scenario planning.
How does scenario planning work in practice?
Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of scenario planning.
Compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of various scenario approaches.
Include a scenario-planning example and a concise conclusion that summarizes the points made in the paper.
be a minimum of 600 words;
In compliance with BrainMass rules this is not a hand in ready essay but is only guidance.
Evolution of scenario planning:
Scenario planning is visualizing what future conditions are probable, what their consequences or effects would be like and how to respond to, or benefit from them. The inception of scenario planning is traced to Herman Kahn in 1950 at the RAND Corporation where he developed a technique of describing the future in stories as if written by people in the future. These descriptions were called stories. In 1961, he found the Hudson Institute where scenarios were applied to social forecasting and public policy. In the mid-60s authors from American and French institutions began publishing scenario planning concepts. These included "The next thirty-three years" by Kahn and Wiener in 1967. Large companies used scenario planning in late 70s but the process was difficult and costly. In 1983 Diffenbach said that alternate scenarios were an important technique for long range forecasting. In 1990s the use of scenario planning by Shell was well documented (1). In 2005, Peter Cornelius, Alexander Van de Putte and Mattia Romani published a paper on "three decades of scenario planning in Shell". The article reviewed the evolution of scenario planning at Shell.
In practice business related scenarios include potential changes to the market, problems with the supply chain, product releases from competitors, personal changes, and ...
Scenario planning is explained in a structured manner in this response. The answer includes references used.