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# Probability

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I Would Like Problems Resolved In EXECL IN EXCEL VERSION (No Higher Than version 2003)

Question #1
A gambler in Las Vegas is cutting a deck of cards for \$1,000. What is the probability that the cards for the gambler will be the follow?

1. A face card
2. A queen
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Question #2
The life of an electronic transistor is normally distributed, with a mean of 500 hour' deviation of 80 hours. Determine the probability that a transistor will last for more than 400 hours.
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Question #3
The Polo Development Firm is building a shopping center. 1t has informed renters that their rental spaces will be ready for occupancy in 19 months. If the expected time until the shopping center is completed is estimated to be 14 months, with a standard deviation of 4 months, what is the probability that the renters will not be able to occupy in 19 months?
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Question #4
A manufacturing company has 10 machines in continuous operation during a workday. The probability that an individual machine will break down during the day is .10. Determine the probability that during any given day 3 machines will break down.
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Questions # 5The Senate consists of 100 senators, of whom 34 are Republicans and 66 are Democrats. A bill to increase defense appropriations is before the Senate. Thirty-five percent of the Democrats and 70% of the Republicans favor the bill. The bill needs a simple majority to pass. Using a probability tree, determine the probability that the bill will pass.

Questions #6 (IN EXCEL VERSION (no higher than 2003)
A concessions manager at the Tech versus A&M football game must decide whether to have the vendors sell sun visors or umbrellas. There is a 30% chance of rain, a 15% chance of overcast skies, and a 55% chance of sunshine, according to the weather forecast in College Junction, where the game is to be held. The manager estimates that the following profits will result from each decision, given each set of weather conditions:
Weather Conditions
Decision Rain Overcast Sunshine .?.
. 30 .15 .55
Sun visors \$-500 \$-200 \$1,500
Umbrellas 2,000 0 -900

1. Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. 2. Develop the opportunity loss table and compute the expected opportunity loss for each decision.

https://brainmass.com/statistics/conditional-probability-distribution/probability-177326

#### Solution Summary

This is a series of probability problems for various situations including standard deviation, probability tree, and expected value.

\$2.19
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## The probability

A young engineer has invented holographic mobile phones and has approached a venture capital company to invest in it. The venture capital company considers the product to be an all or nothing product: either everyone will want one because everyone else has one or no one will want one because there will be no one to use it with. The company believes that the probability that it will take off netting them a profit of \$2000000 is 0.14. If it doesn't take off then they expect that they would loose \$200000. They are considering using a consumer survey to gather more information. However, the company has experience that shows that the probability that the consumer survey will predict success for a product that will fail is 0.24, and the probability that the consumer survey will predict failure when the product will be a success is 0.07. What is the monetary value of the information from a consumer survey to the venture capital company in this case? (ie what is the maximum that they should spend on a consumer survey)?

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