# Bayes Theorem

In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or he guesses. Let p be the probability that he knows the answer and 1-p the probability that he guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 1/m, where m is the number of multiple choice alternatives.

What is the conditional probability that a student knew the answer to a question given that he answered it correctly?

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#### Solution Preview

In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or he guesses. Let p be the probability that he knows the answer and 1-p the probability that he guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with ...

#### Solution Summary

The expert calculates probability using Bayes Theorem. Conditional probability is examined.