The oasis outpost of Abu Ilan, in the heart of the Negev desert, has a population of 20 Bedouin tribesmen and 20 Farima tribesmen. El Kamin, a nearby oasis, has a population of 32 Bedouins and 8 Farima. A lost Israeli soldier, accidentally separated from his army unit, is wandering through the desert and arrives at the edge of one of the oases. The soldier has no idea which oasis he has found, but the first person he spots at a distance is a Bedouin. What is the probability that he wandered into Abu Ilahn? What is the probability that he is in El Kamin?

Bedouin Farima Total
Abu Ilan 20 20 40
El Kamin 32 8 40

Probability of Spotting a bedouin = Probability of selecting Abu Ilan x Probability of selecting a Bedouin in Abu Ilan +Probability of selecting El Kamin x Probability of selecting a Bedouin in El ...

Solution Summary

The solution calculates conditional probability: Probability that the oasis is Abu Ilan given that the person spotted is a Bedouin & Probability that the oasis is El Kamin given that the person spotted is a Bedouin.

... These probabilities represent the probability of one ... an example of a joint event. ... are related to marginal probability, conditional probability and independence ...

... Marginal Probability Conditional Probability Outcome Probability Outcome Probability A 0.20 D ... b) Joint Probability Table D ND Marginal A 0.002 0.198 ...

... procedure given that all I have are probabilities that are ... Event Prior Probability Conditional Probability Joint Probability Posterior Probability P(Ci) P(B|Ci ...

... basic probabilities like probability density function, distribution function, marginal probability, conditional probability and joint probability distribution. ...

... maintenance program that would alter the probabilities of machine ... Marginal Probability Conditional Probability Joint Probability Joint Probability Table: ...

...Probabilities can be used in many ways such as The General Law of Addition ... and the events are independent, is a special rule used to find the joint probability. ...

Probability: Conditional and Marginal Probabilities. ... bottom of the Word document showing the conditional distribution of Y, the joint distribution of X ...

... The solution evaluates probability density function, distribution function, marginal probability, conditional probability and joint distribution in detail. ...