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Forecasting:MA,WMA, Exp smoothing, Exp smoothing with Trend

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Show all work, where appropriate in using Excel (no version higher than 2003), PLEASE INCLUDE ALL FORMULARS IN CELLS WHERE CALCULATIONS ARE MADE.
Recent past demand for product ZXT is given in the following table:

Month Actual Demand
February 20
March 22
April 33
May 35
June 31
July 48
August 41

a) Determine the forecasted demand for May, June, July and August based on a three month moving average.

b) Determine the forecasted demand for May, June, July and August based on a three month weighted moving average with weights w1=.1, w2=.4, and w3=.5, where w3 is the weight for the most recent month of the three months.

c) Determine the forecasted demand for March, April, May, June, July and August based on a simple exponential smoothing with alpha (α) = 0.4.

d) Determine the forecasted demand for March, April, May, June, July and August based on an adjusted exponential smoothing with alpha (α) = .2 and beta (β) = .3.

e) Compute MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MSE (Mean Squared Error) for the results from a), b), c) and d).

Show all work, where appropriate in using Excel (no version higher than 2003), Please include all formulas in cells where calculations are made.

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Solution Summary

This posting contains a problem on forecasting with Moving averages, Weighted moving average, Exponential smoothing, Exponential smoothing with trend adjustment, MAD and MSE. The solution enumerates the procedure to solve the problem using all the above stated methods.

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