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Compariosn of forecasting methods

(See attached file for full problem description)

Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

(see chart in attached file)

a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average for periods 10-12.
b. Calculate the weighted three-month average using weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for periods 10-12.
c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for period 10-12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 61 and Alpha of 0.30.
d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 10-12 using an initial trend forcast (T9) of 1.8, and exponential smoothing forecast (F9) of 60, and alpha of 0.30 and beta of 0.30.

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Solution Summary

This posting contais a problem on forecasting which compares various forecasting models and choses the best one among them.