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When disparities exist from census data, housing starts data and other research data when seeking for information to help with forcasting the power tool market how do you reconcile the differences in the various forecasting services to provide an insight into the future that you can rely on and base decisions on?

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Forecasting is assessed.

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First of all we should keep in mind that forecasting is a continuing process and disparities may occur in different times under different conditions. If the results of one forecasting method deviate significantly from the other, then we need to review both of them to reconcile the differences. In order to reconcile different forecasting services, we should combine them methodically and we should also use objective procedures to ensure the accuracy. For example, we can add each of the forecasts and calculate their average (equal weights). However in most cases we need to assign different weights to forecasts. If there is a trend that is contrary to the expected trend, it should not be extrapolated. This allows ...

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Umut Oltulu, MBA
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  • BSc, Dokuz Eylul University
  • MBA, Texas A&M University-Kingsville
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