1. Which gives a better prediction of the sales: 3MA, 6MA, exp 0.2, or exp 0.8 Why? Use MAD to explain, and show all work. What is the BEST prediction for day 379, if you do not consider seasonality? (MA = moving average, exp = exponential smoothing, MAD = mean absolute deviation)
2. Is seasonality present? If so, what are the seasons? If seasonality is present, determine the seasonal indices.
3. Please explain in details how/what/why you did what you did in this exercise and list the solutions which you have came up with. In other words, provide a written summary of this exercise so that I understand exactly how you did it.
This posting contains solution to following problem on forecasting.