Comparing forecasting methods and choosing the best one
The Fastgro Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The company has gathered the following data for the past three years from its sales records.
Year Quarter Demand for Fertilizer
1 1 105
2 150
3 93
4 121
2 5 140
6 170
7 105
8 150
3 9 150
10 170
11 110
12 130
A. Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
B. Compute a five quarter moving average forecast for quarters 6 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
C. Compute a weighted three- quarter moving average forecast using weights of .50, .33, and .17 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data, respectively, and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
D. Compare the forecasts developed in (a), (b), and (c) using cumulative error. Which forcast appears to be most accurate? Do any exhibit any bias?
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