Forecasting techniques,factors in selection of forecast
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Understanding Forecasting Techniques
Introduction: All firms conduct their activities in an uncertain environment and use forecasting techniques to reduce this uncertainty. The challenge facing a forecaster is choosing the right technique. However, forecasting is not a substitute for managerial decision-making; it simply acts as an aid to the process.
Task: Do you agree with the above statement?
Begin your discussion as follows:
State why you agree or disagree with this statement. Suggest the prerequisites of a good forecast.
Review the postings of at least two other students. Do you agree that managers need to develop realistic expectations from forecasting?
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Solution Summary
The answer contains the explanation regarding simulation, time series, factors to be considered in the selection of forecasting technique and prerequisites of good forecast.
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All firms conduct their activities in an uncertain environment and use forecasting techniques to reduce this uncertainty. The challenge facing a forecaster is choosing the right technique. However, forecasting is not a substitute for managerial decision-making; it simply acts as an aid to the process.
Forecasting is the estimation in the unknown circumstances or unknown condition. The following techniques can be used:
1. Time series analysis: In Time series analysis, the historical data for future decision making. Here, like extrapolation, moving average ...
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