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    Forecast

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    Consider the following forecasts:

    a. Calculate the three month Simple Moving Average forecast for months 4 - 11 for the following demand data:

    Month Demand SMA
    Forecast Error Absolute Error ( |E| )
    1 120
    2 115
    3 125
    4 119
    5 127
    6 114
    7 120
    8 124
    9 116
    10 137
    11
    b. Calculate the three month Weighted Moving Average forecast for months 4 - 11 for the following demand data using weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2:

    Month Demand WMA
    Forecast Error Absolute Error ( |E| )
    1 120
    2 115
    3 125
    4 119
    5 127
    6 114
    7 120
    8 124
    9 116
    10 137
    11

    c. Calculate the Exponential Smoothing forecast for months 4 - 11 for the following demand data:
    Use the demand for period (month) 1 as the forecast for period (month) 2. Use an alpha of 0.6

    Month Demand Exponential Smoothing
    Forecast Error Absolute Error ( |E| )
    1 120
    2 115
    3 125
    4 119
    5 127
    6 114
    7 120
    8 124
    9 116
    10 137
    11

    d. Determine CFE and MAD for months 4 - 11 for each of the methods in part a, b, & c

    Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential
    Smoothing
    CFE
    MAD

    e. Use the following quarterly data (sales in units) to develop seasonal indexes:

    Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Seasonal Index Year 4
    1 51 62 74
    2 103 124 133
    3 172 199 222
    4 296 332 367
    Total 622 717 796

    f. If the forecasted annual demand for Year 4 is 900, calculate the quarterly demands for Year 4.

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    https://brainmass.com/business/business-management/81490

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