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# City probation office trys to forecast volume of new cases

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A city probation office tries to use various reported crime rates to forecast the volume of new cases. The total number of nonviolent crimes reported in the city is determined for 12 quarters, as is the volume of new cases. The data are:

Quarter, t: 1 2 3 4
Crimes (thousands), xt: 6.4 5.6 5.8 6.6
New cases (hundreds), yt: 13.1 13.5 12.7 12.9

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7.0 6.7 6.5 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.7
14.3 14.8 14.4 13.9 15.0 15.5 15.1 14.6

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#### Solution Preview

a) We refer to the correlation matrix, pasted below. Each item in the matrix is the correlation between the corresponding column variable and the corresponding row variable.

Correlations: NewCases, Crimes, LagCrimes
NewCases Crimes
Crimes 0.635
LagCrimes 0.974 0.597

The desired correlation is ...

#### Solution Summary

The expert examines the city probation office trying to forecast volume of new cases.

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