# Confidence Intervals, Cancer Potency, Cancer Risk

Please see attachment.

7. Using the upper 95% confidence level for the 20 mg/kg-day dose, calculate the cancer potency by drawing a straight line from the 20 mg/kg-day dose level to the origin.

8. Do the same using the lower 95% confidence level.

9. Calculate the range of doses that would correspond to a one in a million risk (p = 1E-6) using your answers to Questions 7 and 8.

10. What conclusions do you draw from your answer?

11. If you were the EPA administrator, would you ban Kil-EZ to avoid human cancers? Explain your answer.

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#### Solution Preview

7. Using the upper 95% confidence level for the 20 mg/kg-day dose, calculate the cancer potency by drawing a straight line from the 20 mg/kg-day dose level to the origin.

8. Do the same using the lower 95% confidence level.

I pasted the chart below. Draw lines from the points above the 20 mg dose to the origin.

To find the cancer potency, calculate the slopes of those lines:

lower level of CI for 20 mg dose:

slope = (0.0168 - 0)(20 mg/kg/day - 0) = 0.00084 kg-day/mg

upper level of CI for 20 mg doseL

slope = (0.1832 - 0)(20 mg/kg/day - 0) = 0.00916 kg-day/mg

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Let's do the same calculations as in questions 7 and 8 but for the other doses:

Rat test dose in mg Kil-EZ per kg rat body weight ...