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Bayers Theorem

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Choose any medical scientific study who applied a Bayer Theorem and write down the article information (title, author, location, and date) of the article, write a paragraph about the summary or overview of the article (You can copy from the article), and write your opinion about the article.

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The following paper applied a Bayer Theorem to estimate age dependent disease rates:

Title: Age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer
Author: Michael P. Fay, Ruth Pfeiffer, Kathleen A. Cronin,Chenxiong Le, Eric J. Feuer
Journal source: Statistics in Medicine 2003, 22(11):1837-1848

The abstract of this paper is:

We propose an estimator of the probability of developing a disease in a given age range, conditional on never having developed the disease prior to the beginning of the age range. Our estimator improves the one described by Wun, Merrill and Feuer ( Lifetime Data Analysis 1998; 4, 169-186) that is currently used by the U.S. National ...

Solution Summary

Bayers theorem is examined. A medical scientific study which applies Bayer Theorem is determined.

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Probability Statistics Problem

Suppose that 1% of all people have a particular disease. A test for the disease is 99% accurate. This means that a person who test positive for the disease has a 99% chance of actually having the disease, while a person who test negative for the disease has a 99% chance of not having the disease.

If a person tests positive for the disease, what is the chance (rounded to the nearest hundredth) that he or she actually has the disease?

I have worked the problem two ways and am receiving two different answers.

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