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book review probability of random selection

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2. The editor of a publishing company is trying to decide whether to publish a proposed business statistics textbook. Information on previous textbooks published indicates that 10% are huge successes, 20% are modest successes, 40% break-even, and 30% are losers. However, before publishing decision is made, the book will be reviewed. In the past, 99% of huge successes, 70% of moderate successes, 40% of the break-even, and 20% of losers received favorable reviews. Note that the information implies that a published book may have received either the favorable review or unfavorable review. Based on these data, graph a probability tree and compute the following probabilities:
(a) What is the probability that a randomly selected published textbook receive favorable review?
(b) Given that the book is a modest success, what is the probability that this book received unfavorable review?

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Solution Summary

The probability that a random book had a favorable/unfavorable review is demonstrated.

Solution Preview

OK, let's first draw the tree: every book is either

--- 10% --- huge success --- 99% --- favorable review
___ 1% --- unfavorable review

-- 20% -- modest ---- 70% --- favorable
____ ...

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