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# AvAir - Forecast

AvAir, a regional airline, reported miles flown data as shown in Table 1, below. In January 2002 AvAir added aircraft to its fleet and changed the method of scheduling maintenance.

REVENUE SEAT MILES (000's) AVAILABLE SEAT MILES (000's)
2006 2007 2006 2007
January 10,584 13,330 16,100 18001
February 11,100 13,900 16,040 17940
March 11,500 14,145 16,010 17,932
April 12,050 14,895 15,900 17,920
May 12,550 15,110 15,890 17,898
June 12,910 15,892 16,025 17,863
July 13,180 16,100 15,925 17,810
August 13,100 16,010 15,843 17,765
Sept. 13,106 15,991 15,861 17,722
October 12,900 15,900 15,832 17,660
November 13,001 19,952 15,815 17,625
December 13,050 16,012 15,804 17,540

Review the data and suggest area(s) where problems or discrepancies may exist.

b. Which forecasting method, from among those discussed in the text and in class, best predicts revenue seat miles (RSM), and available seat miles (ASM)? Justify your answers.

c. If no additions are made to the AvAir's fleet or practices, when do you predict that AvAir will no longer be able to increase revenues from passengers? Assume that non-revenue passenger miles are 5% of revenue miles.

#### Solution Preview

a) Please refer to the EXCEL sheet 'Forecast'. The areas shaded in brown represents areas which might correspond to problems or discrepancies.

b) Please refer to the Line Graphs in the attached EXCEL sheets 'Revenue Seat Miles' and 'Available Seat Miles'. The given data shows little or ...

#### Solution Summary

This solution is comprised of detailed analysis and step-by-step calculations of the given problem and provides students with a clear perspective of the related aspects of forecast analysis.

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