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    letter related to epidemiology

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    I need assistance with a letter related to epidemiology:

    You are the chief epidemiologist at a local county health department. One day, you receive a phone call from Mrs. Hudson, a resident of the northern part of a nearby town with a population of 25,000. She believes there is a cancer cluster in her community. Here's why:
    Mrs. Hudson's sister, who lives less than a mile away, was recently diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.
    A neighbor of Mrs. Hudson's sister recently died of leukemia.
    Mrs. Hudson knows at least 10 other cases of cancer in the community, including a child afflicted with a brain tumor, several cases of prostate cancer, a woman with cervical cancer, and a man with malignant melanoma.
    Mrs. Hudson suspects that the cause may be a pesticide manufacturing plant that has been operating on the outskirts of the city for the past year.

    Based on the above information, compose a letter to allay Mrs. Hudson's fears.

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    Solution Preview

    Mrs Hudson lives in a community of 25000 people. Since around 30% of the whole population at some time in life will get at least one cancer (and around 50% of those will die of it) it is NOT remarkable to know or know of at least 10 people at one time with cancer. Rather the opposite in fact, this is normal. So there is NO cluster!

    In general the risk of cancer increases with age. But that is not the case with all cancers. So to find one child with a brain tumor in this collection is not remarkable at all. ...

    Solution Summary

    A letter related to epidemiology is modeled.