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Estimating Project Completion Time

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Kozar International, Inc. begun marketing a new instant-developing film project. The estimates of R&D activity time (weeks) for Kozar's project are given in the table attached. The project has two paths: A-C-E-F and A-B-D-F. Assume the activity times are independent.
a) The company wants to be 95% confident that it can deliver the project without incurring any penalty, what time frame should it specify in the bid for project completion time?
b) If the time to complete the path A-B-D-F is normally distributed, what is the probability that this path will take at least 38 weeks to be completed?

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Solution Summary

This is a project management question which looks at a path and asks what the probability of completion is. [273 words]

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The project has two paths:
A-C-E-F:
- Expected Duration = 9 + 12.5 + 7.166 + 12 = 40.66 weeks (Critical Path).
- Variance σ2 = 0+2.25+0.69+.044 =3.38 , Standard Deviation = σ 1.838

A-B-D-F
- Expected Duration = 9+ 10 + 8 + 12 = 39 weeks.
- Variance = 0+0.44+1.00+0.44 = 1.88, Standard Deviation = 1.371

Assumption: The probability of completing the project within a given time frame depends on ...

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