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Time series analysis for U.S. general aviation shipments.

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14.16) (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.

(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.

(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful?

(d) Make a similar graph for 1992 - 2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?

(e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992 - 2003 data.

(f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?

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The solution provides step by step method for the calculation of Time series model for U.S. general aviation shipments . Formula for the calculation and Interpretations of the results are also included.

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