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Trend analysis for U. S. General Aviation shipments

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14.16
(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.
(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.
(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.
(d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?
(e) Fit a trend model of your
choice to the 1992-2003 data.
(f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set

Worksheet attached with further details and second problem (see attachment).

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Solution Summary

This posting contains the solution to the following trend projection problem of U.S. Aviation shipments. It involves plotting the data and approximating trend equation, forecasting for next period based on the equation and the interpretation of R-square (see attachment, includes graph).

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