# Statistics - Forecast

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14.16 (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. (d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004? (e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992-2003 data. (f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set? Airplanes

U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1966-2003

Year Planes

1966 15,587

1967 13,484

1968 13,556

1969 12,407

1970 7,277

1971 7,346

1972 9,774

1973 13,646

1974 14,166

1975 14,056

1976 15,451

1977 16,904

1978 17,811

1979 17,048

1980 11,877

1981 9,457

1982 4,266

1983 2,691

1984 2,431

1985 2,029

1986 1,495

1987 1,085

1988 1,143

1989 1,535

1990 1,134

1991 1,021

1992 856

1993 870

1994 881

1995 1,028

1996 1,053

1997 1,482

1998 2,115

1999 2,421

2000 2,714

2001 2,538

2002 2,169

2003 2,090

________________________________________

Source: U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, Statistical Databook 2003, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, used with permission.

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