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    Plot Data, Discuss pattern, Fitted Trend, Forecast

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    Instruction:
    ? a) Plot the data
    ? b) Discuss the pattern and possible causes
    ? c) Would a fitted trend be helpful?
    ? d) Does 1992-2003 graph suggest fitted trend can predict 2004?
    ? e) Fit a trend model to 1992-2004 data
    ? f) Make a forecast for 2004
    ? g) Why is it best to ignore earlier data?

    The table below shows the number of aircraft delivered by U.S. manufacturers to the general aviation market for a 38-year period. "General aviation" is defined as all aviation activities aside from military and scheduled passenger or freight airline flights. General aviation includes business jets, flight training aircraft, crop dusters, pleasure flight, experimental aircraft, charter airline flights, and anything else that's neither military or scheduled airline flying. Please address items (a) through (f) below.

    U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1966-2003
    Source: U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, Statistical Databook 2003, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, used with permission.
    (a) Prepare a time-series plot of the data for all years.

    (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.

    (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful?

    (d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?

    (e) Fit a straight-line trend model to the 1992-2003 data.

    (f) Use either the fitted trend model or common sense and judgment to predict a specific level of sales for 2004.

    Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?

    Year Planes
    1966 15,587
    1967 13,484
    1968 13,556
    1969 12,407
    1970 7,277
    1971 7,346
    1972 9,774
    1973 13,646
    1974 14,166
    1975 14,056
    1976 15,451
    1977 16,904
    1978 17,811
    1979 17,048
    1980 11,877
    1981 9,457
    1982 4,266
    1983 2,691
    1984 2,431
    1985 2,029
    1986 1,495
    1987 1,085
    1988 1,143
    1989 1,535
    1990 1,134
    1991 1,021
    1992 856
    1993 870
    1994 881
    1995 1,028
    1996 1,053
    1997 1,482
    1998 2,115
    1999 2,421
    2000 2,714
    2001 2,538
    2002 2,169
    2003 2,090

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    https://brainmass.com/statistics/descriptive-statistics/plot-data-discuss-pattern-fitted-trend-forecast-293736

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