(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.
(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.
(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.
(d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?
(e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992-2003 data
(f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?
[See the attached question file.]
Very neat and step-wise solutions is provided to the questions. Graphs shown.