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United States General Aviation: Fitted trend analysis

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Plot the data and describe the pattern.

See the attached excel spreadsheet.

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Solution, complete with graphs as required.

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Trend Analysis for U. S. General Aviation Shipments

(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.
(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.
(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.
(d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?
(e) Fit a trend model of your
choice to the 1992-2003 data.
(f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set

Worksheet attached with further details and second problem (see attachment).

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