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Forecasting problems

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1. Gasoline sales time series

Week Sales (000s of gallons)
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18
6 16
7 20
8 18
9 22
10 20
11 15
12 22

1. Using this table show the exponential smoothing forecasts using a=0.1. using the mean squared error criterion, would you prefer a smoothing constant of a=0.1 or a=0.2?

2. A company has monthly percentages of all shipments that were received on time over the past 12 months as 80,82,84,83,83,84,85,84,82,83,84,83.
a. Compare a 3 month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a=0.2. what provides the better forecasts?
b. What is the forecast next month?

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Solution Summary

This posting contains solution to following forecasting problems. The expert examines gasoline sales by using time series.

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Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis
Week Sales(000s of ...

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