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# Using forecasting models in business operations

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Describe how a domestic fast food chain like McDonald's with plans for expanding into China would be able to use a forecasting model.

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Forecasting Model

What is forcasting?
Primary function of forcasting is to predict the future using mathematical model ( time series related or other) data.

Where is forecasting used?

Forecast can demand for products and services
Forecast availability/ need for manpower
Forecast inventory and material needs daily

Characteristics of Forecasts
A good forecast includes a mean value and standard deviation and accuracy range (high and low).
A good forecast includes:

Short term ( Days/Weeks) - short term sales, shift schedule and resource requirement
Intermediate ( Weeks/ Months) - Product family sales; labor needs and resource requirements.
Long term ( Months/ Years) - Capacity needs; long term sales patterns, growth trends

Subjective Forecasting Methods

One method of forcasting is the "subjective forecasting". This usually require sales force composites and an aggregation of sales personnels estimates. It required a collection of the customer surveys and a jury of executive opinion. As part of the subjective forecasting is the "Delphi Method", which means that individual opinions are compiled and anonymously shared among group. Their opinion requests are repeated until an overall group consensus is reached.
A domestic food chain MacDonalds that want to expand into China should considered the "subjective forecasting". One step of the food chain MacDonalds is to estimates their total sales personnels costs over China. They also need to collect customers surveys and a jury of executive opinion about the pros and cons of the expansion into China. Individuals opinions are collected and a vote must be agree among the groups.

Objective Forecasting methods

There are two primary methods: causal models and time series methods.

Causal ...

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The expert describes how a domestic fast food chain like McDonald's with plans for expanding into China would be able to use a forecasting model.

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## What is your definition of Operations Management?

I am seeking your help with the following questions in order for me to write my individual paper.

1. What is your definition of Operations Management?

2. Give examples and compare/contrast strategic, tactical, and operational decisions. How do they affect a customer's operations?

3. What measures are used to evaluate supply chain efficiency? What are the inputs to those measurements?

4. Compare and Contrast the Make-to-Order, Make-to-Stock, and Hybrid process approaches described in your text.

5. Discuss the cost of quality. Compare and contrast the cost of quality with the cost of not measuring quality. Define process variation. How can reducing process variation improve quality?

6. Discuss why people at different levels of an organization have different definitions of capacity management? Discuss those definitions.

7. Discuss some sources of forecasting error. What ways are there to measure error?

8. The text states that a firm's operations strategy must be aligned and integrated with the corporate strategy. Why do you think this is the case? What do you think would happen if the two strategies were at odds?

9. What are the elements of a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)? How can a project schedule be developed from a WBS? What is the importance of the critical path?

10. Define, compare, and contrast Pure, Functional, and Matrix structures. Who has control of project schedule and deliverables? Who has control of resources, the project manager or functional manager, or both?

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