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# What is the probability of finishing the project in 47 days or longer? Crash the project by four days. Explicitly indicate which activities to crash and the total crash cost.

The network representation for a given project is shown below:
See attached sheet

Estimated activity durations in days (te) , standard deviation for each activity (&#61555;), the number of days each activity can be crashed by and crash cost per day are as follows:

See attached document for data.

a) Find out and explicitly state the total project time and the critical path activities (You may show all your calculations on the above diagram.)
b) What is the probability of finishing the project in 47 days or longer?
c) Crash the project by four days. Explicitly indicate which activities to crash and the total crash cost.
d) Based on the original network, if the execution of activity E is delayed by 1 day, activity G is delayed by 1 day and activity I is delayed by 2 days, would the simultaneous occurrence of these delays prolong the total project time? Justify your answer.

#### Solution Preview

See attached file for solution

a) E(TPT) = 46 days, 2 critical paths: CP1: A-C-F, CP2: B-D-F

b) P(TPT > 47) = P(z >0.29) = 0.5 - P(0<z<0.29) = 0.5 - 0.1141 = 0.386

CP1 = (2A + 2C + 2F)1/2 = 2.89
CP2 = (2B + 2D + 2F)1/2 = ...

#### Solution Summary

The probability of finishing the project in 47 days or longer is determined.

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