Explore BrainMass

Forecasting Models for Decision Making

This content was STOLEN from BrainMass.com - View the original, and get the already-completed solution here!

Two airlines that are merging and the new president, who has to quickly get a handle on the maintenance costs for their entire fleet of planes. The president must act quickly, but accurately, to make the decisions necessary to create a financially sound company.

1. Prepare Peg Young's response to Stephen Ruth.
2. Give support for each step of your decision making.
3. Include a chart

© BrainMass Inc. brainmass.com October 25, 2018, 8:50 am ad1c9bdddf


Solution Preview

Dear student, please refer to the attachment for the solution. Thank you for using BrainMass!

Relationship between Average Fleet Age and Airframe Cost per Aircraft:
The Scatter Plot between Average Fleet Age and Airframe Cost per Aircraft for Northern Airlines is given as follows:

From the above scatter plot it is evident that for Northern Airlines, there is a linear positive relationship between Average Fleet Age and Airframe Cost per Aircraft. The correlation coefficient between the two attributes is given as 0.877, which is very close to its ideal value of +1, thus indicating a strong positive correlation between the two variables.
The Scatter Plot between ...

Solution Summary

Forecasting models for decision making are examined. The expert prepares Peg Young's response to Stephen Ruth.

See Also This Related BrainMass Solution

Waiting Line Models, Queueing Analysis, Decision Analysis and Forecasting

1) WAITING LINE MODELS -AMC Movie Theatre has only one box office clerk. For the movie theatre's normal offerings, customers arrive at the average rate of 3 per minute. On the average, each customer who comes to see a movie can be sold a ticket at the rate of 6 per minute. Assume arrivals follow the Poisson distribution and service times follow exponential distribution.

A) What is the probability that no customers are in the system?
B) What is the average number of customers waiting in line?
C) What is the average time a customer spends in the waiting line?
D) Do the operating characteristics indicate that the one-clerk system provides an acceptable level of service? Explain your thoughts.

2) DECISION ANALYSIS -Riverlake Fashion Centre must decide how many lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores. Information on prices, sales, and inventory costs has led to the following payoff table (in thousands):

Order Size Low Medium High
1 Lot 12 15 15
2 Lot 9 25 35
3 Lot 6 35 60

A) What decision should be made by one who is an optimist?
B) What decision should be made by one who is conservative?
C) What decision should be made by using minimax regret?
D) What approach would be deemed as preferrable- optimistic, conservative, or minimax regret? Eplain your position.

3) FORECASTING -The number of soda cans sold in a vending machine each week over a 10-week period were as follows: 338, 219, 278, 265, 314, 323, 299, 259, 287, 302

A) Develop forecasts using 3 and 4 week moving averages.
B) Compute the Mean Squared Error (MSE) for the 3 and 4 week moving average forecasts.
C) Of the two, what appears to be the best number of weeks of past data to use in the moving average computations?
D) Discuss briefly the benefits of using the moving average method for forecasting purposes.

keywords: queue analysis

View Full Posting Details