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# Probability and Marketing

A local beer company sells two types of beer, a regular brand and a light brand with 30% fewer calories. The company's marketing department follows its traditional strategy of targeting women beer drinkers with light beer and men beer drinkers with regular beer. To test the rationale for this strategy an intern at the company randomly selected a group of 510 people and questioned them about their beer-drinking preferences. The data shown in beer(men&women).xlsx are obtained.
[You might find it useful to construct a contingency table for this problem. The pivot table wizard in excel is a handy tool to create the contingency table]

(a) If a woman is chosen at random from this group, what is the probability that she prefers light beer (to regular beer or no beer at all)?
W=203
P (W_L) =50.25%
P (W_R) =40.89%
P (W_N) =8.87%

(b) If a man is chosen at random from this group, what is the probability that he prefers light beer (to regular beer or no beer at all)?
P (M_L) =30.29%
P (M_R) =60.59%
P (M_N) =9.18%

(c) If we restrict our attention to men who like to drink beer, what is the probability that a randomly selected man from this group prefers to drink light beer?

(d) If we restrict our attention to women who like to drink beer, what is the probability that a randomly selected women prefers to drink light beer?

(e) Does the company's strategy of targeting women beer drinkers with light beer and men beer drinkers with regular beer appear to be appropriate? Explain very briefly why or why not.

#### Solution Preview

W=203
P (W_L) =50.25%
P (W_R) =40.89%
P (W_N) =8.87%

M=510-203=307
P (M_L) =30.29%
P (M_R) =60.59%
P (M_N) =9.18%

(c) If we restrict our attention to men who like to drink beer, what is the probability that a randomly selected man from this group prefers to drink ...

#### Solution Summary

Probability and marketing types for selected groups are discussed.

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