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Analysis on 4 forecasting models using Excel

Time Period Actual Number of Units Sold
1 33
2 36
3 32
4 35
5 33
6 36
7 34
8 38
9 37
10 36
11 38
12 38
13 37
14 39
15 35
16 38
17 37
18 39
19 37
20 35
21 37
22 34
23 35
24 36

1. Based upon using mean absolute deviation (MAD) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the forecast models would be the preferred forecast model (i.e., which model provides the greatest degree of forecasting accuracy)?
• 3-Month Moving Average Model
• 3-Month Weighted Moving Average Model
• Exponential Smoothing Model
• Regression Model

2. Based upon using mean squared error (MSE) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the forecast models would be the preferred forecast model (i.e., which model provides the greatest degree of forecasting accuracy)?
• 3-Month Moving Average Model
• 3-Month Weighted Moving Average Model
• Exponential Smoothing Model
• Regression Model

3. Based upon using mean absolute percent error (MAPE) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the forecast models would be the preferred forecast model (i.e., which model provides the greatest degree of forecasting accuracy)?
• 3-Month Moving Average Model
• 3-Month Weighted Moving Average Model
• Exponential Smoothing Model
• Regression Model

4. Based upon using mean absolute deviation (MAD) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the forecast models would be the least preferred forecast model (i.e., which model provides the greatest degree of forecasting inaccuracy)?
• 3-Month Moving Average Model
• 3-Month Weighted Moving Average Model
• Exponential Smoothing Model
• Regression Model

5. Based upon using mean squared error (MSE) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the forecast models would be the least preferred forecast model (i.e., which model provides the greatest degree of forecasting inaccuracy)?
• 3-Month Moving Average Model
• 3-Month Weighted Moving Average Model
• Exponential Smoothing Model
• Regression Model

6. Based upon using mean absolute percent error (MAPE) as a measure of forecast accuracy, which of the forecast models would be the least preferred forecast model (i.e., which model provides the greatest degree of forecasting inaccuracy)?
• 3-Month Moving Average Model
• 3-Month Weighted Moving Average Model
• Exponential Smoothing Model
• Regression Model

7. Based upon using the 3-Month Moving Average Model and mean absolute deviation (MAD) as a measure of forecast accuracy, what would be the interval estimate for projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25?
• 32.18 - 37.82
• 34.83 - 35.17
• 33.65 - 36.35
• 33.70 - 36.30

8. Based upon using the 3-Month Moving Average Model and mean squared error (MSE) as a measure of forecast accuracy, what would be the interval estimate for projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25?
• 34.83 - 35.17
• 33.65 - 36.35
• 33.70 - 36.30
• 32.18 - 37.82

9. Based upon using the 3-Month Moving Average Model and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) as a measure of forecast accuracy, what would be the interval estimate for projected demand for the test equipment for time period 25?
• 34.83 - 35.17
• 33.70 - 36.30
• 33.65 - 36.35
• 32.18 - 37.82

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Solution Summary

The solution gives detailed steps on comparing 4 forecasting models: MA, weighted MA, exponential and regression. I have done all analysis in excel.

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