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# Quantitative modeling

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The Whistle Stop Cafe in Weems, Georgia, is well known for it's popular homemade icecream.

12. For the demand data in Problem 11, develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for 2006. (Use a linear trend line model to develop a forecast estimate for 2006.) Which forecast model do you perceive to be accurate: the exponential smoothing model from Problem 11or the seasonally adjusted forecast?

Please see the attached file, and assist in Excel (Version 3.0).

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#### Solution Preview

Please see the two attached files.

Two-factor Exponential Smoothing

Alpha Beta
.50 .50

t Ice Cream Sales Smoothed Trend Forecast % error
490.0 -2.9 *
1 350 418.5 -37.2 487 -39.1
2 510 445.5 -5.1 381 25.3
3 750 595.0 72.2 440 41.3
4 420 543.5 10.4 667 -58.8
5 370 462.0 -35.6 554 -49.7
6 480 453.0 -22.3 426 11.3
7 860 645.5 85.1 431 49.9
8 500 615.5 27.6 731 -46.2
9 450 546.5 -20.7 643 -42.9
10 550 538.0 -14.6 526 4.4
11 820 671.5 59.4 523 36.2
12 570 ...

#### Solution Summary

This goes through a series of problems regarding quantitative modeling and forecast models.

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