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Moving Average Forecast

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The closing value of the AMEX Airline Index for each trading day during a 1 year period is given in the attached file.

1) How well does the moving average method track this series when we span in 4 days; when we span in 12 days?

2) Using the more appropriate span, forecast the closing value of this index on the next trading day with the moving average method.

Please do the calculations in Excel.

Which is the better predictor- a 4 day span or a 12 day span?

Justify your reason for selecting either the 4 day or the 12 day.

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4-day span will be a better predictor than the 12-day span. This is because of the fact that, the shorter the time ...

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