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Forecasting: Time Series and Moving Average

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Please refer to the attached table.

Year Crop Yield Rainfall Temperature
1996 208 25 53.2
1997 215 28.2 58.5
1998 204 25.6 55.1
1999 196 23.5 52.6

25. We decide to construct a time series model to obtain a 2 and 3-period moving average to forecast student enrollments for next term. Which statement is true concerning the accuracy of each forecast?

a. The 2-period forecast will be more accurate than the 3-period forecast.
b. The 3-period forecast will be more accurate than the 2-period forecast.
c. Both forecasts will be equally accurate.
d. Either forecast could be more accurate than the other.
e. Can NOT be determined.

26. 15 months of time series data is available for the sales of a product. We apply a 5-month moving average model to the data. To obtain the mean square error (MSE) we must sum ___ squared error terms.

a. 15
b. 10
c. 9
d. 5
e. 12

27. What are the values of the weights applied to a simple moving average model?

a. They all equal 1.
b. They all equal 0.
c. They are all equal and they all sum to 1.
d. They are all equal and they all sum to 0.
e. None of the above

28. A _________ moving average model for time series data is a moving average model with _________ weights.

a. Simple, unequal
b. Weighted, equal
c. Weighted, unequal
d. Either simple, unequal or weighted, equal
e. Both b and c

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Solution Preview

25. We decide to construct a time series model to obtain a 2 and 3-period moving average to forecast student enrollments for next term. Which statement is true concerning the accuracy of each forecast?

a. The 2-period forecast will be more accurate than the 3-period forecast.
b. The 3-period forecast will be more accurate than the 2-period forecast.
c. Both forecasts will be equally accurate.
d. Either forecast ...

Solution Summary

Answers multiple choice questions on forecasting: Time series, moving average

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