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Conditional Probability: The Probability of Carrying a Disease

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Question: A common test for AIDS is called to ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) test. Among 1 million people who are given the ELISA test, we can expect results similar to those given in the attached table.

Please view the attachment for the rest of the question.

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In a detailed solution, this response provides reasoning for how each of these probability-based calculations need to be done. All required calculations are included.

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(a) The question asks what is the probability that the selected person is suffering from B1.

The probability of this is given by = total person suffering from B1/Total persons studied
= (4885+115) / 1,000,000.

(b) The question asks what is the probability that the ...

Solution provided by:
Gaurav Agarwal, MS
Education
  • BE, Bangalore University, India
  • MS, University of Wisconsin-Madison
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