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Forecasting and Moving Averages

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The chairperson of the department of management at State University wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in production and operatiosn management (POM) next semester, in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The cahir has accumulated the following enrollment data for teh past eight semesters:

Semester Students enrolled in POM
1 400
2 450
3 350
4 420
5 500
6 575
7 490
8 650

a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through9

b. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (a=.20) for the enrollment data.

c. Compare the two forecasts by using MAD and indicate the more accurate of the two

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Solution Summary

The solution contains the determination forecast value using moving average and exponential smoothing techniques.

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Calculate a forecast of the demand using a 3 and 5 period moving average.

You sold the following number of flowers during the last two weeks. Calculate a forecast of the demand using a 3 and 5 period moving average. Graph these forecasts and the original data using excel. What does the graph show and which of the above forecasts is best and why.

Day 1 Demand Day Demand
1 200 8 150
2 134 9 182
3 157 10 197
4 165 11 136
5 177 12 163
6 125 13 157
7 146 14 169

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