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# Forecasting and Modeling

I am having trouble with the problems attached. I can't figure out the periods, smoothed forecasting and linear regression. I have attached the problem because the tables/graphs look better on a word document rather than in the full description section.

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1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Period Demand
1 200
2 245
3 190
4 270
5 280
6 300

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4.

2. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month Actual demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45

Use a four period moving average and determine the forecasted demand for July and August.

3. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Month Actual demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45

Use exponential smoothing with and the smoothed forecast for July is 32 and determine August and September's smoothed forecasts.

4. The following sales data are available for 1998-2003 inclusive:

Year Sales
1998 7
1999 12
2000 14
2001 20
2002 16
2003 25

Determine a 4-year moving average forecast for each possible year.

5. Robert has the following accounts on money spent on gambling and winnings:
Money spent Money won
1000 2500
1200 4000
11800 4500
2000 4600
2500 5000
2800 4800
3500 5600
4000 6000
4200 5800
7000 X

Using linear regression, predict x.

#### Solution Preview

I used Excel to solve these problems. I pasted the results in the Word document. I also made scatterplots of the data, then added a trendline (moving average or linear), by going to the Chart menu at the top of the page.

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Problems

Provide demonstration of the details of the solution

1. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Period Demand
1 200
2 245
3 190
4 270
5 280
6 300
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4.

Period Demand 3-period moving average:
1 200
2 245
3 190 211.6666667
4 270 235
5 280 246.6666667
6 300 283.3333333

Find the 3-period moving average by taking the average of the demand for that period and for the two periods before. The average for period 4 is the average of 270, 190, and 245.

***Note: I calculated the moving average using the data for the period we're interested in as well as the data from the previous two periods (so for the average for period 4, we took the average of periods 2, 3, and 4). This is what the moving average ...

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