Comparison of Extrapolation and Writing of Scenarios
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Compare and contrast extrapolation with the writing of scenarios as forecasting techniques. Why is creative thinking using scenarios, extrapolation, brainstorming, the Delphi technique or statistical modeling helpful in the strategic management process?
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Solution Summary
The solution compares and contrasts extrapolation and the writing of scenarios as forecasting techniques the reasons why creative thinking is helpful in strategic management. References are included.
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Forecasting is a way of anticipating the future based on intuition and critical judgment so that patterns can be discovered to be used to predict future outcomes.
Extrapolation is a forecasting technique that is based on the assumption that there is a possibility that certain phenomena will manifest themselves in the future with the same dynamic rate or direction.
Scenario writing is another forecasting technique that futurists use to express their ideas about future events. Scenario writing can express the following: probable futures based on extrapolated trends, possible futures based on number of alternatives that are revealed through future matrices, wheels, or scan hits, and preferred futures based on futurist's personal values or desires, etc.
According to Grashaw (2009), both extrapolation and scenario write focus on future possibilities an organization faces and they also aim to act on these possible future situations but they are different in the approach that they use. Extrapolation predicts future trends based on the past and present data while scenario writing predicts ...
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