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identifying some independent variables

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I am doing a project in which I have to create two forecasts for my dependent variable (Stock: Oracle, ORCL). I need to create one forecast using the regression model and the other using exponential smoothing model. What I need help with is identifying the best independent variables for my project. I need some macro level variables and some micro level variables that mostly affect the company that I am studying. Please help me identify the best variables to include in my equation. How do I calculate the weights for the independent variables or is it trial and error? ORCL = X1 + X2 + X3

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I am doing a project in which I have to create two forecasts for my dependent variable (Stock: Oracle, ORCL). I need to create one forecast using the regression model and the other using exponential smoothing model. What I need help with is identifying the best independent variables for my project. I need some macro level variables and some micro level variables that mostly affect the company that I am studying. Please help me identify the best variables to include in my equation. How do I calculate the weights for the independent variables or is it trial and error? ORCL = X1 + X2 + X3

One of the variables is the value of the Nasdaq or any other index of your choice that is directly relevant to the Oracle stock. That is if the index goes down the stock price of the share is likely to be depressed and when there is the bull in the market, the price of Oracle is likely to rise.
The second most important variable is the EPS of the Oracle share. (Earning Per Share). The EPS is usually third variable after the dividend ...

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