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INTRODUCTION TO mANAGEMENT

I LIKE THE HELP OF AN OTA PLEASE.
The Fastgro Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demand from it. The company has gathered the following data for the past three years from its sales records.
year-------Quarter--------Demand for Fertilizer(tons)
_____________________________________________________
1 1 105
2 150
3 93
4 121
2 5 140
6 170
7 105
8 150
3 9 150
10 170
11 110
12 130
_______________________________________
a) Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast for each quarter.
b) Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand data for fertilizer. Then use a linear trend line model to compute a forecast estimate for demand in year 4.

Solution Preview

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<br>a) Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast for each quarter.
<br>
<br>The three-quarter moving average forecast is found by taking the mean (average) of the previous three quarter values and is given below:
<br>
<br>QR = Quarter, DMD = Demand for Fertilizer(tons), 3QMAG = three-quarter moving average forecast
<br>
<br>QR DMD 3QMAG
<br>-- --- -----
<br> 1 105
<br> 2 150
<br> 3 093
<br> 4 121 116.0
<br> 5 140 121.3
<br> 6 170 118.0
<br> 7 105 143.7
<br> 8 150 138.3
<br> 9 150 141.7
<br>10 170 135.0
<br>11 110 156.7
<br>12 130 143.3
<br>13 --- 136.7
<br>-------------------------------------------------------
<br>b) Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand ...

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