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Decision Making

What decision concepts (theories, principles, heuristics, etc.) were demonstrated for each of the situations within the Unit 3 Activity? Be sure to justify and explain your rationale for choosing each principle.

What do these decision concepts imply about the ways in which we people make decisions?
Can any of these decision concepts lead to critical errors in judgment? Why or why not? Be sure to support your conclusions.


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One of the decision concepts that were illustrated was the regression to the mean. This is a form of representative bias. In this the decision maker assumes that the output will be similar to the input, though this is not always the case. This decision concept implies that we do not make enough allowances for the back that the input may not be representative of the output. This can lead to critical errors in judgment because we may prejudge the output and make decisions based on a bias.

Another decision concept that was illustrated is the law of small numbers. This means that we assume that random sample of the population will represent the population more closely than those produced by statistical theory. This decision concept implies we tend to attribute too much similarity between a random sample and the population and this ...

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