What decision concepts (theories, principles, heuristics, etc.) were demonstrated for each of the situations within the Unit 3 Activity? Be sure to justify and explain your rationale for choosing each principle.
What do these decision concepts imply about the ways in which we people make decisions?
Can any of these decision concepts lead to critical errors in judgment? Why or why not? Be sure to support your conclusions.
One of the decision concepts that were illustrated was the regression to the mean. This is a form of representative bias. In this the decision maker assumes that the output will be similar to the input, though this is not always the case. This decision concept implies that we do not make enough allowances for the back that the input may not be representative of the output. This can lead to critical errors in judgment because we may prejudge the output and make decisions based on a bias.
Another decision concept that was illustrated is the law of small numbers. This means that we assume that random sample of the population will represent the population more closely than those produced by statistical theory. This decision concept implies we tend to attribute too much similarity between a random sample and the population and this ...
This posting gives you an in-depth insight into Decision Making
Decision Making Process: Individual Vs Group
(Scenario) The CEO of your company has been extremely frustrated with what has been occurring within the organization lately. In a recent managers meeting he exclaimed,
"Everyone around this place just follows the status quo. No one ever has any unique ideas on how we can make this organization better. You just sit here and wait for me to give you directions on what to do. Then you follow those directions word-for-word without asking any questions or making any improvements. We need to change this attitude and change it quickly."
He then pointed out each of your group members stated, "I'm assigning you all to a working group. Your goal is to help me fix this problem. I want you to work together, do some research, and come up with concrete ideas and suggestions to fix this problem."
Your group must do analysis, have discussions (either via the small group chat or discussion board) and come to a consensus to prepare a report (paper) that addresses the following:
Part 1 - Define the term "group" after discussion with your fellow team members. Avoid repeating a dictionary definition. For this scenario what would constitute a "group"?
Part 2 - Are there any differences in how individuals and groups make decisions? If so what are they?
Part 3 - Identify the applicable decision concepts (theories, principles, paradoxes, etc.) from our learning all semester (not just the group decision concepts identified in Unit 5) that your group believes will best explain what is occurring within the organization. Be sure your group provides rational to support each of the concepts your group identifies.
Study Material The Psychology of Judgment and Decision making(Plous) Chapter 17-18 and earlier theories and thoughts concerning Decision Making concepts.
Part 4 - Identify at least three (3) recommendations (from your group to the CEO) that will help him improve or overcome the current decision making conditions within the organization.
thank you for your insight and professional thoughts.
very important group assignment. Best Regards