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Exponential Smoothing Forecast, MSE, MAE and MAPE

With the gasoline time series data from Table 6.1, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using x = 0.1.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Value 17 21 19 23 18 16 20 18 22 20 15 22

a. Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of x = 0.1 or x = 0.2 for the gasoline sale time series.
b. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy?
c. What are the results if MAPE is used?

Solution Summary

The solution provides detailed explanation how to calculate MSE, MAD and MAPE.

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