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Exponential Smoothing Forecast, MSE, MAE and MAPE

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With the gasoline time series data from Table 6.1, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using x = 0.1.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Value 17 21 19 23 18 16 20 18 22 20 15 22

a. Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of x = 0.1 or x = 0.2 for the gasoline sale time series.
b. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy?
c. What are the results if MAPE is used?

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Solution Summary

The solution provides detailed explanation how to calculate MSE, MAD and MAPE.

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